Assessing uncertainty associated to the monitoring and evaluation of spatially managed areas

Vanessa Stelzenmüller, Tomas Vega Fernandez, Katerine Cronin, Christine Röckmann, M Pantazi, Jan Vanaverbeke, Tammy Stamford, Kristian Hostens, Ellen Pecceu, Steven Degraer, Lene Buhl-Mortensen, Julia Carlström, Ibon Galparsoro, Kate Johnson, J Piwowarczyk, V Vassilopoulou, Robbert Jak, Martha Pace, Luc Van Hoof

    Onderzoeksoutput: Bijdrage aan congresGepubliceerd abstract

    Uittreksel

    Worldwide place‐ based management tools such as marine spatial planning (MSP) are advocated to support an ecosystem approach to marine management allowing balancing multiple management objectives, including marine conservation. Monitoring and evaluation are crucial components which need to relate to both implemented plans and the MSP process itself. Two complementary tools for uncertainty characterization and quantification, namely Walker and Pedigree matrices, were developed e adapted and tested within the nine case studies which applied a stepwise assessment framework for evaluating the performance of marine spatial management. Case studies identified for instance with the help of the Walker matrix that knowledge, scenario and data uncertainty as sources of uncertainty in the majority of the actions of the framework steps. Average scores of the pedigree matrix (eight criteria scored from 0 to 4) were compared to a simulated distribution of scores and results showed that all case study scores were in an acceptable range of values. Further results showed that the criteria of stakeholder engagement and cross validation had greatest influence on the overall robustness of the case study assessments. At last, we simulated possible distributions of average scores and respective standard deviations generated by 1 to 30 experts to assess the influence of the number of experts on the robustness of the scoring of the pedigree matrix. Results suggested that, when using the here addressed assessment framework,
    four experts provide a more robust uncertainty analysis. The revealed pattern of
    associated uncertainty descriptors was highly consistent across the case studies, despite the fact that they made flexible use of the framework in order to account for the local realms. We conclude therefore that those tools could be generally useful and widely applicable, independently from the from the assessment context such as geographical area, quality of available data, level of spatial management implementation, or management objectives. Ultimately, the here presented complementary approach to characterize and analyse uncertainty allows prioritizing efforts for future research and subsequent management process through iterative monitoring and evaluation of its performance.

    Key words: monitoring and evaluation, Monte Carlo simulation, pedigree matrix, spatially managed areas, uncertainty characterization, uncertainty quantification, Walker matrix
    TaalEngels
    StatusGepubliceerd - 10-okt-2013
    EvenementMESMA Final Event - Lissabon, Portugal
    Duur: 8-okt-201310-okt-2013

    Symposium

    SymposiumMESMA Final Event
    LandPortugal
    StadLissabon
    Periode8/10/1310/10/13

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