Experimental validation of a dynamic heat load simulation model applied to a pig farm in Belgium

In 2023, the European Union reported having 133 million pigs, producing a total of 20.6 million tonnes in carcass weight, making the pig sector the largest livestock category in the EU. Globally, the livestock sector contributes 14.5% of all human-originated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with the pig sector accounting for 10% of this total. Quantifying energy demands in livestock farms is essential for integrating renewable energy, as currently only 4% of the global livestock sector energy demand is met by renewable sources. This study presents a Building Energy Simulation (BES) model based on the simple hourly method from ISO 13790:2008 to estimate heating loads in a pig farm in Belgium (119 sows, 366 piglets, 463 fattening pigs). The model's predictions are compared to physical measurements on the heating system. The farm's heating and ventilation systems are modelled, and the simulation results are compared with experimental data collected from January 11, 2025, to February 1, 2025. Findings show that the model estimates a total heat demand of 2,534 kWh, which is 40% lower than the measured demand of (4,509 ± 343) kWh, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 8.0 kW. When boundary parameters were adjusted to mirror real conditions instead of setpoint conditions, the theoretical heat demand was estimated to be 3,327 kWh, with a maximum load of 48.5 kW and an RMSE of 10.9 kW. These discrepancies suggest areas for model improvement.