TY - JOUR
T1 - To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers?
AU - Kipling, Richard
AU - Topp, Kairsty
AU - Bannink, André D.
AU - Bartley, David Jon
AU - Blanco-Penedo, Isabel
AU - Cortignani, Raffaele
AU - del Prado, Agustín
AU - Dono, Gabriele
AU - Faverdin, Philippe
AU - Graux, Anne Isabelle
AU - Hutchings, Nicholas
AU - Lauwers, Ludwig
AU - Gülzari, Özkan
AU - Reidsma, Pytrik
AU - Rolinski, Susanne
AU - Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita
AU - Sandars, Daniel L.
AU - Sandor, Renata
AU - Schönhart, Martin
AU - Seddaiu, Giovanna
AU - van Middelkoop, Jantine C.
AU - Shrestha, Shailesh S.
AU - Weindl, Isabelle
AU - Eory, Vera
PY - 2019/10
Y1 - 2019/10
N2 - Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers’ views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.
AB - Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers’ views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.
KW - B410-agricultural-hydrology
KW - Adaptation
KW - Agricultural modelling
KW - Climate change
KW - Research challenges
U2 - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104492
DO - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104492
M3 - A1: Web of Science-article
SN - 1364-8152
JO - Environmental Modelling & Software
JF - Environmental Modelling & Software
IS - 104492
M1 - 104492
ER -